Both reports I’ve linked to (Sky news and Channel 4) use data from The National Institute of Economic and Social Research, a body Faisal Islam calls ‘highly respected’.
Yet as The Sunday Times noted, Governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, warned that recovery may be ‘slow and protracted’. Recovery is by no means clear cut.
What I want to ask is: how will this affect the political fortunes of Gordon Brown? As I wrote yesterday, I don’t believe the Prime Minister’s fortunes to be linked to the economy anymore (‘It’s not the economy, stupid, it’s you. Sorry Gordon‘).
I’ll now make the inevitable John Major comparison: the economy grew strongly in his last few months but this did not reconnect him with the disaffected electorate. I’d be interested to know what you think. Can Gordon Brown really persuade the voters that he should be given another spell in office?
Certainly, at PMQs today he proved he hasn’t and probably is incapable of change. He reeled off figures, thumped his fist, and hammered out his points. There will be no ‘New Gordon Brown‘, no GB v2.0. The question is, will an economic recovery boost Brown’s political fortunes? I suspect that may be the million dollar question that will hold the key for political historians when they look at this era in years to come.
UPDATE 11th June: The pound has hit a 2009 high against the euro. Proof of market confidence in Mr Gordon Brown?
¹I wrote this post yesterday (Wednesday), sorry for the delay!